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The dollar is losing its grip. 3 stocks to own.

27 May 2026 · Issue #1

The dollar's reserve share just hit a 30-year low. Capital is rotating. Here's where it's going.

Paid my energy bill this morning. Checked the dollar index. One of those numbers is going up and one is going down, and it's not the one you'd want.

The Slow Collapse Nobody's Pricing In

The dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves just fell below 57% for the first time since 1995. That's down from 72% at the turn of the millennium. Two decades of slow bleed, with most of the damage done in the last three years. The number alone doesn't kill you — the velocity does.

Two things accelerated this. First, the US weaponised the dollar after 2022, freezing roughly $300 billion in Russian sovereign reserves and showing every non-Western central bank exactly what political risk looks like in a dollar-denominated world. Second, the tariff chaos of April 2025 triggered what Brookings described as "sharp, unusual" dollar falls — the kind that simply shouldn't happen to the world's reserve currency. Both shocked. Neither has been forgotten.

The market's response has been methodical. J.P. Morgan's research notes that de-dollarisation is most visible in commodity markets, where a growing share of energy is now priced in non-dollar contracts. Foreign ownership of US Treasuries has fallen to 30% of the market — down from over 50% at the peak. Morningstar tracks the DXY down nearly 10% through September 2025, with the dollar falling 13.5% against the euro and 13.9% against the Swiss franc in the same period. That's not a blip. That's a regime.

When the dollar weakens structurally, commodities priced in dollars get a mechanical tailwind. Producers earn the same number of dollars but their cost bases — denominated in local currencies — compress in dollar terms. Margins expand without any operational improvement. This is the trade. It won't last forever, but we're likely in the early innings.

3 Stocks for the Regime Shift

Ivanhoe Mines (TSX: IVN) — The Copper Bet Nobody Wants to Make Right Now

Ivanhoe is down 44% from its 52-week high, trading around CA$11.50. That's the entry point. The business underneath hasn't changed. Its Kamoa-Kakula complex in the DRC produced 388,841 tonnes of copper concentrate in 2025, with the Phase 3 concentrator running over 30% above design capacity. The on-site smelter — Africa's largest — is already past 60% feed rate. Meanwhile, copper surged above $13,000 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange in 2026, driven by AI data centre construction, EV expansion, and grid buildout. Its Platreef project in South Africa is on track to deliver a 400% production increase starting Q4 2027. The stock is down because investors fixated on near-term earnings noise. The metal is up because demand is structural. One of those is wrong.

NexGen Energy (TSX: NXE / NYSE: NXE) — The Uranium Play Before the Lights Turn On

NexGen holds the Rook I project in Saskatchewan's Athabasca Basin, the highest-grade uranium deposit on the planet. It's pre-revenue, which is why most institutional money won't touch it. That's the opportunity. Citi expects uranium to reach US$100 per pound in 2026, pointing to tight enrichment dynamics and dwindling inventories. Sprott notes that these critical materials — uranium, copper, silver — went nowhere for 10-15 years with no capital investment, and governments are now fixated on supply chain resilience. NexGen's 52-week range tells the story: from a low of CA$5.59 to a high of CA$18.90. It's a volatile name, so size accordingly. But the Athabasca Basin isn't going anywhere.

Endeavour Silver (TSX: EDR / NYSE: EXK) — The Monetary Metal With Industrial Legs

Silver is doing something unusual. It's simultaneously the most undervalued monetary metal (according to Rick Rule's April 2026 framework) and an indispensable industrial input — roughly 55-60% of silver demand is industrial, tied to solar panels, electronics, and EV batteries. Endeavour Silver operates three producing mines in Mexico with low all-in sustaining costs, and its Terronera mine is ramping production. Bank of America and J.P. Morgan project silver at $55-$70/oz average for 2026, with UBS flagging triple-digit potential. Endeavour is a leveraged bet on that thesis — a junior miner with operating assets, which is rare in this sector. When silver moves, mid-tier producers with actual production move faster.

244 tonnes

Central banks bought 244 metric tonnes of gold in Q1 2026 alone — a 17% jump from Q4 2025 and the fastest pace of sovereign accumulation in over a year. Gold hit $5,405 per ounce in January. Normally, prices that high slow buying. Instead, they accelerated it. That's not a trade. That's a policy decision.

The Commodity Cycle Sequence

Commodity cycles follow a sequence. Cycles Edge lays it out clearly: precious metals move first, then base metals, then energy, then agriculture. Gold broke out and ran. Copper followed — $13,000/tonne is an all-time high. Energy is still consolidating, which is why Crescat Capital's Tavi Costa told Sprott Money in April that "energy is at a place where emerging markets were a year ago and where mining was four years ago — nobody cares." That kind of neglect is usually where multi-baggers are born.

The commodities-to-equities ratio is at its lowest level in decades, below the setups seen before both the 1970s and early 2000s commodity bull markets. Capital has been overwhelmingly concentrated in financial assets. The reversal of that imbalance doesn't need to be dramatic to produce outsized returns in a sector this starved of investment. Agriculture lags most — but that's a newsletter for another week.

The De-Dollarisation Bears Are Wrong, But So Are the Bulls

The consensus on de-dollarisation splits into two equally useless camps. Camp one says the dollar is finished and we're weeks away from a new Bretton Woods. Camp two says nothing has changed and anyone who mentions reserve share is a goldbug crank. Both miss the actual trade.

The dollar isn't collapsing. IMF data puts its reserve share at 56.92% — not a collapse, a gradual drift. But the marginal flow matters more than the stock. Foreign ownership of US Treasuries has fallen from above 50% to 30% over fifteen years. Goldman's Anshul Sehgal put it best: commodity markets are tiny relative to global fixed income, so even a modest shift in sovereign demand sends prices "quite violently" in one direction. You don't need to believe the dollar is dying to profit from the rotation. You just need to be early.

Worth Reading

IMF COFER Q3 2025 Data The primary source on dollar reserve share — now at 56.92%, its lowest since 1995. Informed Clearly

World Gold Council Q1 2026 Demand Trends Full breakdown of the 244-tonne central bank buying quarter and the record $193bn demand value. World Gold Council

Ivanhoe Mines Deep Dive Why a 44% drawdown on one of the world's best copper assets looks like an entry point, not a warning sign. Yahoo Finance / Motley Fool Canada

Copper at $13,000/tonne: What It Means for Miners The weak dollar and structural demand thesis explained for resource stock investors. Discovery Alert

Rick Rule on Silver, April 2026 The veteran resource investor's current framework — why silver is his most undervalued monetary metal call right now. Canadian Mining Report

Ranked: Central Banks Buying Gold in 2026 Poland leads with 20+ tonnes. China and Uzbekistan follow. The buyer list is getting longer, not shorter. Visual Capitalist

Re-reading Russell Napier's work on financial repression this week. Written years ago. Reads like it was published this morning. That's usually the sign you're looking at something real.

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